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Please remove this warning message

 
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win1
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:33 am    Post subject: Please remove this warning message Reply with quote

Greetings. Recently I joined this wonderful sniping service. I won my first auction 3 days ago using Gixen. Really liked the software precision, light interface, and mirror feature. I bought my renewable year subscription. For a few reasons - mirror reliability feature, no ads and intend to support this project. But my major reason was the ability to choose a lower offset option. Lowest currently is 2 seconds. Which is ideal offset time in my opinion. It's not as dangerous as 1 second. Because it's really easy to miss at this timing, even for a sniping precise machine. It's not as slow as everything higher than 2. For example today I won my second auction. Because I placed my snipe 2 seconds before the end and obviously because I had a higher bid. My opponent placed 6 seconds before. If I would use standard offset - 6 seconds. The chances of my winning diminish greatly. Here is the message I receive after I add my auction with 2 second offset time on Gixen, mind you this warning message pop-up even after I added a 2-second offset as my default time:
Quote:
There is little or no reason to keep bid offset lower than 6 seconds. You get no advantage with it, quite the opposite - the bid increment rule works against you, and you also dramatically increase the chances of your snipe being late.
Let me refute the statement. I told previously why 2-second actually gives you an advantage - because it's faster than 6 and your opponent has no time to outbid you. I mean not the automatic proxy bid, but the manual raising of the bid - when the bidder suddenly decides to increase his maximum bid. This statement "bid increment rule works against you". I truly don't understand. I placed many manual snipes with 2 seconds offset for over 3 years as I'm participating in eBay auctions. This offset time never worked against me and I have never been late. Only recently I switched to sniping service. Because there is no worrying aspect, no need to be present at the exact moment and the sniping machine is very precise. I'm asking admin. Please remove this 2 seconds offset warning message or let us users choose in the setting menu whether it should pop up every time or not. Many thanks!
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Cupid



Joined: 09 Aug 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 10, 2021 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not disagreeing that there should be an option to remove the warning if users have acknowledged it and still wish to ignore it.

I do, however, disagree that;

win1 wrote:
If I would use standard offset - 6 seconds. The chances of my winning diminish greatly.


because I'm sure you can not produce the evidence that would be required to substantiate such a claim. If you can I'm sure everyone would be very interested to see such evidence. As you already acknowledge it's not always the last bid that wins, it is however always the highest accepted bid that does win.

I'm happy to explain, once again, what

Quote:
bid increment rule works against you


means in practice:

The later in an auction your bid is placed the more time you have given for others to place their bid before you; the auction price rises with each extra bid. If your bid is not at least one bid increment more than the auction price it is rejected. Therefore the later your bid is scheduled the more likely it is to be rejected because it is too low, even though it might actually be higher than anyone else was prepared to bid whether or not they schedule with a sniping tool or are bidding manually.

We have many cases of this being reported by Gixen users on this forum, complaining that their bid was not placed even though it was higher than the winning bid, and in most instances, where other snipers were bidding on the item, the answer is that had their bid been placed earlier they would have won the auction and potentially would have even blocked the bid of the eventual winner in the same way that they are complaining their bid was actually rejected. Just because it's quite rare and you have no experience of it does not mean it never occurs, as it happens, because of how this mechanism operates, the closer your bid is to the value agreed by other snipers and the more snipers there are the more likely the bid increment rule is to be of significance to the outcome of the auction.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to admit that I exaggerated a bit about greatly diminishing chances of winning with 6 seconds. I would say you still be able to win, but if you bidding with 6 seconds offset you still giving other people, who bid manually, a time to increase their maximum bid. That's not a plus I think. The best way to eliminate that possibility is to bid with 2 seconds offset. Isn't what sniping is all about? Bidding as close as possible to the end of the auction, without the risk of your bid being too late and not registering like a 1-second bid. As I said from my 3-year experience of bidding manually with 2 seconds offset I never had my bid rejected because it's too late or because of this rare increment problem. What I think these users are talking about isn't an increment problem. But eBay or sniper software error, when their bid is simply not registered by the system. If your bid is successfully registered and it's higher than everyone else's your gonna win without question. All-time since 2018, as I loosed, is due to my max bid was lower than of my opponent, and not a 2-second offset. I understand you or the admins of Gixen added this warning message because of the previous user complaints. I know we might disagree on that question. Therefore to come to a consensus. Can you or your fellow admins add a simple checkbox in the settings menu about disabling this eternal warning message pop-up? Add below this checkbox notice message stating that: "Gixen team has no responsibility for user losing his auction due to 2-second offset" and that's it. I would greatly appreciate your cooperation. Because I truly believe your Gixen sniper is as close to ideal as possible and this checkbox would be a great improvement for me and other experienced bidders who are willing to take a risk.
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Cupid



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With respect, I did agree that such an option should be given, if people want it, in the first line of my last response.

However, also with respect, please would you at least make an attempt to understand my last response, I spent some time composing it for you (and the rest of the community), and your offhand dismissal of it is, to say the least, disappointing.

It's NOT an ebay or sniper error I'm talking about it is an intrinsic function of the whole system, and exactly as intended.

Please also note that there might be some other users of this service that have been using sniping services for quite a few more than 2 years.

Many of us use offsets greater than 6 seconds as a result of our experience of losing auctions to a lower price than we are willing to pay with offsets that result in bids being too late to be acceptable to ebay since the price has risen in the last few seconds of the auction as a result of earlier snipes than 2 seconds.

Here are a few examples, I've found for you, for further reading/understanding:

http://www.gixen.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10229

http://www.gixen.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10223

http://www.gixen.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9846
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 4:12 am    Post subject:

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win1
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark, thank you so much for provided links with examples! I finally got it. You're right. I've had a hard time understanding your explanation of this incremental problem in your first message. Because you tying this problem to a wrong cause. It is not a late offset time problem, but an inexperienced bidders' error. Inexperienced eBay bidder does not take into account increments of the eBay system. I have to admit I was the same way. Here is an example from my experience. Back in 2018, I was bidding on one book. I determined the price well. Placed my max bid manually at 2 seconds offset time. It was $259. I thought in the worst-case winning scenario my price would be exactly at $259. I won at $255. This winning price got me curious. Why is that? Why it's not $259, but an odd 255 number. Then I've solved this number riddle. It's something to do with increments. I searched and found a webpage now called "Automatic bidding" and find out that my price would never end up at $259. Because my max bid in the price range of $250.00–$499.99 has an increment of $5. It could only go to $250.00, $255.00, or $260.00 and decimals starting from .00. As you said and I agree with your statement "it is an intrinsic function of the whole system". eBay just won't bid exactly your max bid in a worst-case winning scenario. eBay proxy bidding system would only bid according to incremental rule. In the links, you provided I see the same mistake. People just do not take into account bid increment. Timing has nothing to do with it. I can dissect all of this forum post based on bidders' errors and not offset timing. First link. User "c3pod" thinks that he should've won his auction because he placed a 2444.00 bid, and the auction ends up at 2425.00. What user "c3pod" should have done is simply to take a $25.00 bid increment into account of the price that he is willing to pay. In his case, he shall bid exactly $2450.00, $2500.00, or a number with any decimal from .00 to .99. Like $2450.21, $2500.64, or $2450.99 and $2500.99. Second link. User "carnivalist" doesn't know about bid increment. He's bidding 5.99, thinking that he ends up exactly with this price at the end in the worst case. But the auction ends up at 5.50. What's wrong? Incorrect max bid! According to his bid increment of 0.50. Correct max bid should've been exactly 6.00, 6.50, or 7. Third link. User "speedtrip" placed GBP 333.13 and again complaining about his loss because his max bid was higher than the winning price of GBP 327.73 (this number looks so strange because the winner placed odd decimals of .73 in his max bid). But again user "speedtrip" forgot to include a 5.00 bid increment in his maximum bid that he's willing to pay. As you can notice. All eBay bids rise according to even number (bid increment). This means you should base your max bid around an even number. But what about decimals? You could base your decimal on odd or even numbers and end up at something like GBP 327.73. But you couldn't do that with bid increments that include even numbers. Here this increments with even numbers 0.05, 0.25, 0.50, 2.50. These decimals could only go +0.05, +0.25, +0.50, +2,50 and not on something in between like 0.07, 0.40, 0,72, 2,99. Phew! This took so long to compose and I explained this as simple as it gets. I hope you get it. I could only hope you, admins, and users of Gixen reading this will accept the truth that offset time is not a great cause here, but a bidders' error and this wrong warning message would be removed!
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to correct a few of my mistakes in the last message. The bidder should base his max bid according to the bid incitement number and decimals of this number. But not all bid increments are even numbers. Some of them are odd numbers. Same thing with decimals. I don't know why I stuck my theory around even and odd numbers. Probably tiredness. You just have to keep in mind that eBay bid increases on a bid increment, this excludes bid increments with .00 decimals. These increments do not work by the "addition rule". This means the bidder with the highest decimals wins. It could be any number from .00 to .99.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Auction prices are based on the bids that ebay has already accepted, or (if there are less than 2 bids) on the starting price set by the seller, prices are not based on fixed steps from even amounts and not on increments from any fixed price(s). It's never possible, from looking at any auction, before the ending, to determine what price will be accepted ahead of other users having their bids accepted. It's obvious that it is always possible to have won an auction by being prepared to bid more, the point of bidding earlier is to win at no more than you are prepared to pay and not have other snipers take the item at a price lower than you were prepared to pay.

I'll go further, I can categorically state that if you were to tell me your bid amount and that you were going to schedule a bid with a 2 second offset that I can always design a bidding schedule, using 2 Ebay accounts and 2 Gixen accounts, with Gixen offsets of more than 2 seconds that would ensure your bid would not be accepted and both mine were at a price lower than your snipe amount.

You are still not understanding how ebay uses bid increments in its algorithms, but I can do no more than point this out to you.

If you choose to look further into it, in order to improve your understanding, all well and good, if not, I still wish you good luck with your future snipes.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark, I'm just saying bidders should adjust their max bids according to bid increment and not complaining on this forum about sniper malfunction or eBay not registering their bid because it's too late. It's not a timing or sniper problem! Just users who don't dive deeper into the increment theory. Here is what the word increment means according to Lexico: "an increase or addition, especially one of a series on a fixed scale". At the core, it's an addition. What addition is? According to Cambridge Dictionary: "the process of adding numbers or amounts together". You've said: "starting price set by the seller". You're right about that. But how the price would go higher between the bidders is determined by the bid increment. Open right now any bidding history of any auction. You would see that bids between opponents are determined by the increment. For example, starting price set by the seller is $0.01, bidder A bids $1.00, the auction raises the starting price of $0.01 because he's the first bidder at an early stage, bidder B puts a max bid of $1.25 after him, action price raises from $1 + 0.25 increment and so forth. This rule works every time. No matter early or lately. In forum posts that you've shown me. People lost not because of time offset, but because they not adjusted their max bid. The most pictorial case is user "carnivalist". He thought that he'll win a 5.99 bid amount in the worst case. Which is completely false. With an increment of 0.50. No way! You know that as well as I do. As I've told you what's the problem for him to adjust his price according to increment by one cent? It would greatly increase his winning chances because he's obeying the law of increment. I'm not asking people to be "prepared to bid more". That's not my point. But to adjust their max bids. It's foolish to think that with the max bid of $509 your highest winning bid would end up exactly at this number, but not at $500 according to the increment. A man who knows the theory of increment would bid 1 dollar higher and increase his chances of winning. It's not a marginal increase, but still better than foolishly think that $509 would be the maximum he ends up paying. I don't know how to convince you. I gave all the evidence in the world to prove my point. And you still saying "You are still not understanding how ebay uses bid increments in its algorithms". Please not just say "I can always design a bidding schedule, using 2 Ebay accounts and 2 Gixen accounts, with Gixen offsets of more than 2 seconds that would ensure your bid would not be accepted" and "I can always design a bidding schedule". Prove it. I offer you to screencast a video on YouTube showing a 2-second offset failure with your max bid higher than everyone else's and adjusted to increment. Because I can never do that. It is impossible to me. I and many people reading this forum topic would appreciate this. I think I proved my point with theory and real-life examples. Many thanks for your time! I believe that: "The truth is born in a dispute".
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why would I need Youtube ?

I'll take the example you gave, you are going to bid $510 with a 2 second offset.

I'll bid $500.01 with my first Ebay account and an 8 second offset and bid $500 with my second ebay account with a 7 second offset... your bid is blocked because it isn't $10 more than the auction price of $500.01 and I win with my first Ebay account for $9.99 less than you were willing to pay.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You right. You'll win 100%. Because here you showing the tactic of bidding a bit above the round number that most bidders use to increase chances of winning against someone else who has about the same value of the item as you do. The best way to beat this tactic - do the same, bid a bit above the round number. Like you showed me with your example - $ 510.01 or 510.03. I have to admit I forgot to mention this tactic in my previous example, but I was talking about that few messages before about decimals' importance. I could outbid your 501.01 bid with 510.01 bid with 2 seconds offset the same way as with 8 seconds offset, simply because I have a higher bid. I admit time does not play such a big role at 5-6 seconds difference. What matters is who bids more, obeys increment rule, and bids a few cents than your max bid. Can we both agree that offset time is a personal preference? I prefer to bid for 2 seconds offset time and sacrifice a risk of machine failure for the purpose of cutting off manual bidders who may increase their bid at 6-8 seconds and just people who are indecisive about bidding. You prefer to bid 6-8 seconds offset time (as I may guess) without taking a risk of machine failure, but you give other people who bid manually a chance to increase their max bid. Mark, now you convinced that time has nothing to do with people losing their auction, but new bidders not understanding eBay increments? Please admit that this "2 seconds offset warning message" is wrong and remove it, please. I would really appreciate it.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Once again you are reverting to the argument that being prepared to bid more will win more auctions. That's never been contested though, I've always said that the highest accepted bid always wins on Ebay.

The point you contested was that I could always produce a bidding strategy that would win at a lower price whilst only ever using an offset higher than 2, and I can.

Since you've changed the amount you're now prepared to pay I also can provide a different bidding strategy, of the millions available, that would win at a lower price. So, for instance, I'll bid $505 with my first Ebay account and an 8 second offset and bid $500 with my second ebay account with a 7 second offset... your bid is blocked because it isn't $10 more than the auction price of $505 and I win with my first Ebay account for $5.03 less than the $510.03 you were willing to pay.

By scheduling earlier bids I'm not giving anyone any more chance because any manual bidder sitting there waiting for my bids must be doing so having already decided that they are prepared to bid more than I am, and good luck to them, they are wasting their time, which could easily be saved by using a service like Gixen to schedule bids at their true maximum. Sooner or later they do all realise that, as you yourself have done.

Of course offset is a personal preference, and that is why it is provided as an option on every snipe, for every Gixen user that has a current subscription. However from experience, 'machine failure' is much less of an issue than the operation of the bid increment rule in determining the actual outcome of the auction as a result of low offsets.

Sorry, the message is certainly not wrong, and because you don't like it can never alter that truth.

I think people would be more inclined to support your request, for an option to be able to remove this warning message, if you were more willing to acknowledge that it has some merit in keeping Gixen users well informed about the options they have.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 14, 2021 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You need only one account to win fairly. Everything else is fraudulent bid shielding (it's not about your example). Moreover, multiple account bidding is completely unnecessary and overcomplicates the whole process. It's doesn't matter you have 1 account or 10. Max bid always wins. No matter if the bid was placed with an offset of 2 seconds or 8. Your bidding strategy of 6-8 seconds offset advantage can be easily disproved. Firstly, eBay auctions are so random. You never know when there's gonna be some really interested person. Who's willing to put crazy max bid manually with 30 seconds offset, and outbid even 10 of your accounts. Just because he has more money in his pocket to spend and he's been searching for this rare valuable for a long time. Here is the second example that proofs the imperfection of your strategy. Imagine you have 8 different persons participating in the same auction. All of them decided to use Gixen to bid. Four people decided to use 2 seconds offsets and the other four decided to bid with 8 seconds offsets. We take into account that there would be no problems with Gixen servers and eBay servers. Then all of these bids would register in the last 8 and 2 seconds. After that eBay automatically sorts out the max bid that falls in increment rule and decimals rule, no matter what offset they choose to be. I repeat myself. Offsets with a 5-6 seconds difference are significantly not better than one other. What matters is 2 seconds offset gives you an advantage over manual bidders. You confirmed their existence in the previous message. It could be a small (I still doubt that) and a shrinking number of people. But these people do exist. Why not use such an advantage to your benefit? I've raised this question about this warning message. Just because I believe this message has no place on such a good eBay sniper. For me, it's very unfortunate to see admins so mistakenly presuming that over 6 seconds offsets have major significance in winning the eBay auction. Because of this misunderstanding, they reject to remove a deceitful warning message. I want to inform people about 2 seconds offset advantage. I hope Gixen users reading this message will accept common sense and use 2 seconds offset to their advantage and ignore this warning message. Mark, I can only wish you and all Gixen users the best of luck with their bids!
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cupid wrote:
Why would I need Youtube ?

I'll take the example you gave, you are going to bid $510 with a 2 second offset.

I'll bid $500.01 with my first Ebay account and an 8 second offset and bid $500 with my second ebay account with a 7 second offset... your bid is blocked because it isn't $10 more than the auction price of $500.01 and I win with my first Ebay account for $9.99 less than you were willing to pay.


You are correct, but if you're at bidding on a $500 item then you would account for the bidding increments and set a max of say $521.01 to be safe.

Most auctions are in the sub-$100 range so you would only have to account for the $1 increments.

I don't think there's a right or wrong way, but I'd rather set my absolute max and bid at the last second.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

win1 wrote:
You need only one account to win fairly. Everything else is fraudulent bid shielding (it's not about your example). Moreover, multiple account bidding is completely unnecessary and overcomplicates the whole process. It's doesn't matter you have 1 account or 10. Max bid always wins. No matter if the bid was placed with an offset of 2 seconds or 8. Your bidding strategy of 6-8 seconds offset advantage can be easily disproved. Firstly, eBay auctions are so random. You never know when there's gonna be some really interested person. Who's willing to put crazy max bid manually with 30 seconds offset, and outbid even 10 of your accounts. Just because he has more money in his pocket to spend and he's been searching for this rare valuable for a long time. Here is the second example that proofs the imperfection of your strategy. Imagine you have 8 different persons participating in the same auction. All of them decided to use Gixen to bid. Four people decided to use 2 seconds offsets and the other four decided to bid with 8 seconds offsets. We take into account that there would be no problems with Gixen servers and eBay servers. Then all of these bids would register in the last 8 and 2 seconds. After that eBay automatically sorts out the max bid that falls in increment rule and decimals rule, no matter what offset they choose to be. I repeat myself. Offsets with a 5-6 seconds difference are significantly not better than one other. What matters is 2 seconds offset gives you an advantage over manual bidders. You confirmed their existence in the previous message. It could be a small (I still doubt that) and a shrinking number of people. But these people do exist. Why not use such an advantage to your benefit? I've raised this question about this warning message. Just because I believe this message has no place on such a good eBay sniper. For me, it's very unfortunate to see admins so mistakenly presuming that over 6 seconds offsets have major significance in winning the eBay auction. Because of this misunderstanding, they reject to remove a deceitful warning message. I want to inform people about 2 seconds offset advantage. I hope Gixen users reading this message will accept common sense and use 2 seconds offset to their advantage and ignore this warning message. Mark, I can only wish you and all Gixen users the best of luck with their bids!


What showed is that max bid does *not* always win, which is when the max bid isn't above the amount needed to account for the bid increment.
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cupid wrote:
Once again you are reverting to the argument that being prepared to bid more will win more auctions. That's never been contested though, I've always said that the highest accepted bid always wins on Ebay.

The point you contested was that I could always produce a bidding strategy that would win at a lower price whilst only ever using an offset higher than 2, and I can.

Since you've changed the amount you're now prepared to pay I also can provide a different bidding strategy, of the millions available, that would win at a lower price. So, for instance, I'll bid $505 with my first Ebay account and an 8 second offset and bid $500 with my second ebay account with a 7 second offset... your bid is blocked because it isn't $10 more than the auction price of $505 and I win with my first Ebay account for $5.03 less than the $510.03 you were willing to pay.

By scheduling earlier bids I'm not giving anyone any more chance because any manual bidder sitting there waiting for my bids must be doing so having already decided that they are prepared to bid more than I am, and good luck to them, they are wasting their time, which could easily be saved by using a service like Gixen to schedule bids at their true maximum. Sooner or later they do all realise that, as you yourself have done.

Of course offset is a personal preference, and that is why it is provided as an option on every snipe, for every Gixen user that has a current subscription. However from experience, 'machine failure' is much less of an issue than the operation of the bid increment rule in determining the actual outcome of the auction as a result of low offsets.

Sorry, the message is certainly not wrong, and because you don't like it can never alter that truth.

I think people would be more inclined to support your request, for an option to be able to remove this warning message, if you were more willing to acknowledge that it has some merit in keeping Gixen users well informed about the options they have.


You're giving them a chance to pay more than they wanted to on impulse...just like at a real auction.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, as I intimated, if they are prepared to sit and look at an auction ending in real time, and are happy to pay more than their research tells them is a fair price...

Experience has taught me that happens less often than people think it does, and that being caught out by the bid increment rule happens more often than people think it will... and that's probably because that rule is not as intuitive for many to understand as is a behaviour they have no trouble visualising, even if it's occurrence is less prevalent.

Further, for me, losing auctions to prices lower than I was happy to pay hurts far more than seeing people pay more than I was willing to pay by outbidding me, whether that be in the last few seconds or by having placed a much earlier proxy bid, but maybe that's just me ? ... My snipe amount is always the maximum that I'm willing to pay for the item in question, I'd still much rather have it registered with Ebay and force others to outbid it than have it blocked because it's not at least a bid increment more than the auction price in the last few seconds of an auction.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The best advice I can give people is to bid the way you'll be most happy with.

For you, you're fine with being outbid by someone live bidding at the last second.

For me, I'd rather lose because someone had their initial bid higher than mine, not because they bid more on impulse at the last second, even if it means I occasionally lose being of an increment rule.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

... and that's why it's not a fixed offset... everyone with a Mirror subscription gets to choose.

I often bid on auctions where there's a lot of snipers, I assume most of them automated, so that probably has an influence on my experience too.
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